Uganda: A Coup in Waiting??

Warren Kizza Besigye Kifefe (Dr.) is inherently bright but politically, he either is just a fish, a ridiculously insane idealist, or has all the wrong advisors around him. If he really was serious that he was the president elect, immediately he was sworn in, he should have issued an arrest warrant for Museveni. That would only have worked though, if he had worked to prop up his power base first, by getting the security forces behind him.
Seeing that that is now a strategy overtaken by events, and he is now in police custody, (and he is likely to be found guilty of treason and jailed for a handful of years,) the next most sound alternative would be for him to pull a Mandela: consolidate his support from there, no matter how long the time period he will be there, then build on that base once he is freed. His freedom would provide the impetus for the revolution UG so badly needs.
However, bearing in mind the prevailing circumstances, as well as Museveni's dictatorial repute and his penchant for cowboy diplomacy, UG's hope for change with Besigye as the leading light are dwindling extremely fast. Museveni's lip-service to democracy is failing in rather spectacular fashion, if the shrinking democratic space in the country is anything to go by.
Putting into consideration Africa's history with dictatorial regimes and the consequent disenfranchisement of citizens, UG now bears all the characteristics of a country that is ripe for a coup d'etat. Perhaps UG should learn from its immediate neighbour to the east, Kenya, with regard to the events leading to the 1982 attempted coup. Or from a phenomenon most scholars of politics are all too familiar with: the Arab Spring. 
But as I recently asserted, (sorry to be repeating it) there is a dearth of real patriots who may be willing to take that bold step and square it off with M7's robotics, fanatics and antics. (read the art of intimidating the electorate using robot-like security forces; henchmen and election rigging respectively).
Against this background, Besigye's efforts will go down the drain and he will become UG's Raila; the perpetual election loser who will always complain afterwards and UG will remain in the miserable political muck that it has been in for the past almost 15yrs now. 
(This article first appeared on this blogger's Facebook TL , on May 12, 2016, after Besigye swore himself to 'President of the Republic of Uganda') 

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